One of the underlying purposes of creating these threads was to see the differences in the way each kingdoms nobles responded to the threads. While Demalion, Tryggr and Al Khezam saw nothing more than light entertainment, Arkadian nobles seemed to be particularly disgruntled in their responses. I did not hypothesise that all kingdoms leadership were sensitive and easily riled, only Arkadians. While my other hypotheses remain to be proven or disproven, my hypothesis on Arkadian leadership was quickly proven to be correct.

Shortly after my thread on Al Khezam, Duke Gaius and several Al Khezam Dukes had quickly scrambled to get a trade deal together, preventing further deterioration in their relationships. Begging the question, what will pvp communities do when there are no players to fight. But Al Khezams future looks brighter. Not necessarily through their own doing but through their neighbours supposed willingness for peace. It is their neighbour that controls the situation between the two.

Tryggr appeared confident in their hidden numbers of players to join, despite not addressing the issue of maximal output capacity, while the double Kingdom was simply disinterested, with one Count making a cursory effort.

Money Talks

Though hard for many to admit, it came as a surprise when Arkadia extended their influence as far as the desert border. The power vacuum had caused a shake up in Elyrias politics, where only Arkadia seem to have benefited.

Unless there is a major effort by neighbouring kingdoms to slow down their expansion, the only threat Arkadia have to their growth is personal greed. It is the human way to want more than what we have. The wish to assimilate the small lightly defended neighbouring county. 2 silver mines isn’t enough when there’s a 3rd nearby. A duke didn’t see enough return on investment after the war ended, while some who contributed less received more.

The Psychology of Gain and Loss

There’s a notion that wealthy people tend to be less happy than poor people. This can be true as we are so made to feel dissatisfaction when we lose something we once had. In layman’s terms, if you have the newest laptop that’s fast, has lots of features and has a bigger storage, but then we’re to swap that for an old laptop that’s slow, has less features and a smaller storage, you’re going to be less satisfied with what you have than if you were to only own the old laptop.

The same principle can be applied to nobility in COE. In-game money will get you anywhere. Being able to buy what you want, take what you want and having a regiment or army of men at your command. Only to later lose all that and become a worker for another noble, unable to get what you want, when you want.

For those who are used to getting what they want when they want, frustration can occur more frequently. Making decisions while impatient and frustrated can lead to making poor decisions.

Some are made not to experience that dissatisfaction of losing what you currently have. But some are and those that are, face three choices:

1. Leave the game (As CEO’s do in Star Citizen)
2. Be content with having less and playing differently
3. Work towards becoming a noble again

If no coalition is made to prevent further expansion, the downfall of Arkadia ultimately depends on the character of their nobles and their ability not to succumb to human flaws such as greed, complacency, or a need for revenge. All kingdoms that want to expand are vulnerable to these vices. With expansion comes wealth and power which in turn comes with inner conflict with oneself and outer conflict with the group.

The Two Great Powers

However, from what we know so far, it is less likely that Arkadias nobles will stop supporting each other due to disagreements than Demalion nobles. In fact, it is less likely Arkadia will fall into a civil war than Demalion. Had Tryggr stuck with K4, Demalions expansion would’ve seen a massive land grab for their southern territories. This rush would’ve caused disagreements and arguments over the richest lands and there would’ve been arguments over coastal access to. This doesn’t necessarily mean it would trigger skirmishes between the Dukes and Counts, but it most definitely would mean a reluctance to support each other during wartime. Rivalries can play a part in their reluctance to support each other too.

Tryggr’s Decision in Hindsight

In hindsight, Tryggr can be faulted for not realising the difference in community loyalty between the two kingdoms, Arkadia and Demalion. It’s unfortunate that this decision has put them in a worse position now that Demalion are more likely to work together as they have a common threat. Whereas before, the lack of a common threat sees them consider each other a threat.

While the majority of the Tryggr community voted to reside in K3, it cannot be overlooked that they were not informed on the above disparity’s between Arkadia and Demalion. Disparity’s which their leaders should’ve recognised and shared with their community. Leaders that run kingdoms have to be a lot sharper than what we’ve seen from Tryggr so far.

Al Khezam will find themselves alone as Tryggr will be preoccupied with defending their coasts and northern border as well as supporting the independent Duchy’s if it gets that far. Arkadia may not currently feel the need to acquire resources from neighbouring territories now, but with an increasing population to feed and an increasing need for stone, metals and other resources as well as the fact that they are losing resources to trade for foreign resources in Al Khezam. Only then will Arkadia begin to consider taking rich land on the border areas. An all out war would be too expensive but a stalemate skirmish for resource nodes Arkadia does not yet have will inevitably lead to an all out war. And even if Arkadia were to win that skirmish, Al Khezam wouldn’t sit back and allow that because they know Arkadia can do it again.

Al Khezam can only hope Arkadia find the resources they need in the new world, before it gets to the point where they have to take the resources from Al Khezam as those resources are very much needed for the continued growth of their economy, their military or their infrastructure.

The south eastern seas are also a hotspot for contention.

Interesting Points to Note

One of the most crucial factors in our individual success will be whether we will suffer from tremendous lag. If our mayors, counts and dukes aren’t able to play the game without encountering issues due to 1000 citizens roaming in a small area at once, they can’t tackle the settlements issues. Without management, trouble follows.

We saw Nirath being renamed to Kerwidan. There was an excellent opportunity to come up with a clever, captivating name that could tell a short story or have a meaning but the community wouldn’t expect those guys to pull that off. Some showed their dislike for the name while others mocked it. In typical Arkadia fashion, our reasons for not liking the name was only because we are still salty and angry. Not because the name is a bit bizarre and possibly translates to a lavatory item in another language.

Duchess Rhea will be joining the Kingdom of Arkadia under the guise of being their subject. Rhea will be looking to take advantage of Arkadia’s weakness in diplomacy, leading them on and making them feel like they’ve accomplished what they want. (Little tip Rhea, they take silence as a good sign. That’s the level of intellect you’re dealing with).

Rhea is now in a prime position to take advantage of her “peers” shortcomings. Tryggr and Al Khezam secretly hope the Duchess and her council has the smarts to use Arkadias weaknesses to her advantage. If no coalition is formed to stop Arkadia from becoming the superpower, Al Khezams last hope is Duchess Rhea.

Wars for Independence

To self-govern seems to be a human desire, one that can manifest if they don’t see the benefits of paying taxes to the higher powers.

Reasons for independence can stem from just two conditions:

1. A lack of confidence in the leadership

2. A feeling of anger towards the leadership

If independence is a desire, the safest way to achieve it is through colonisation. By using the resources from the homeland to invest in the new land, one can begin the path of self-sufficiency. Given the current politics, one will always find friends in other kingdoms and a willingness to exchange exotic resources for direct or indirect support.

The open sea is a long and dangerous voyage and so extra planning will be required from the kingdom to come and attack what they feel is rightfully theirs. But they are less likely to make the voyage if they’re preoccupied with war.

Once this opportunity is recognised, as a desire for independence is all too common, its very likely we will begin to see some kingdoms form in the new worlds. Regardless as to whether those kingdoms began life as a colony or an independent state. Once each of these kingdoms or states reaches their maximal output, without hurting the ecology, they will need to expand to support an ever growing population.

Where I lack in ability, I make up for in wealth

It seems strange that for now those who are leading and making the decisions for the rest of the player base are not leading because they earned their way to those positions, but are there because they paid more. All the while there will be more competent and more leader-like people residing within their community.

From what we have observed on Selene, not one person of any kingdoms leadership is in the top 1% of people who are capable of leading. Not one. You’ve got an aloof king in the north with a council that’s not proactively unifying it’s community. You’ve got a kingdom lead by those who haven’t thought deeply about their adversary’s. Then there’s the kingdom that thinks it’ll be able to protect its borders using language. And finally the laughing stock of the Selene community, with sensitive nobles ready to bash the keyboard at the slightest whiff of mockery.

All of this is to be expected in a plutocracy, a government ruled by wealth not competence. As many of you will agree, I’ve done a fair job of pointing out the incompetence.

Note to all nobles. I will be watching you very closely and scrutinising your decisions. No one is safe.